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Tariffs aren’t the real problem in the watch market

Tariffs aren’t the real problem in the watch market

Tariffs are just smoke and mirrors.

The real point is deglobalization.

It’s about cutting off money flow from country to country and locking down any ability to move around the system. That’s what’s really happening.

Take a look at what’s going on at airports in the UAE and Hong Kong. Customs enforcement is on high alert, specifically checking people coming in and out with watches.

It used to be easy. You could wear a watch and walk through. No problem.

Now you have to declare it when you go in. And again when you go out.

If you don’t, they can tax you. Even if it’s your personal watch.

It’s unclear how strictly this will be enforced. Could be random checks. Could get tighter over time. But the fact is, it’s happening.

And you’ve got to understand the real goal here. They’re trying to shrink the global market and force people to buy locally.

Which sounds simple. But it changes everything.

It cuts supply dramatically. And when supply drops, prices go up. And we’re seeing it happen with luxury watches right now. 

The US and China are the biggest buyers of global goods. If both are locked into their own domestic markets, the old ways of price hunting are gone.

The price arbitrage play? Done.

The volume of watches coming into the market is down. And now it makes no sense for the regular consumer to chase international comps.

So what happens? A lot of scarcity for the pieces you want. 

This isn’t a monumental shift in global luxury goods markets. 

The globalization era as we know it is getting shut down. Permanently.

And most people still aren’t paying attention.