How much of a discount should I expect when buying a watch without box and papers?

I get this question a lot, especially from investors and collectors looking to enter or exit luxury timepieces at the right time and value.

So here’s the real answer:

There’s no universal formula because not all watch brands treat box and papers equally.

Let’s start with Rolex. A missing warranty card or paperwork can tank resale value by $20K on a $100K watch. That’s how much buyers value provenance and the confidence that comes with a complete set.

Then take Hublot. You might be looking at a $100 difference whether a piece is “watch only” or comes with full documentation. Same goes for Panerai and a few other brands where the market is driven more by design and demand versus collector-grade completeness.

What about Richard Mille? Like Rolex, it's a provenance-driven market. Missing documentation is often a non-starter for serious buyers.

So what should you do? 

If you're buying without box and papers, here's the simple framework:

• Hublot, Panerai, Breitling & similar = Acceptable risk

• Rolex, Richard Mille, Patek = Avoid unless you're planning to never sell

In short: Buy "watch only" when you’re prepared to hold forever. Otherwise, always position for a clean, confident exit. In the world of alternative assets, exit flexibility is everything.