Today in Part 2, I’ll share how long this will last… and what it means for the upcoming holiday season.

Let’s start with what Covid Taught Us About Supply Chain Shocks

Covid gave us a front-row seat to how long disruptions can ripple through an industry.

Tariffs work the same way — they disrupt the flow of goods.

Here’s my rule of thumb:

• Every 15 days of disruption = 3 months of aftershocks.
  

• A 45-day slowdown could mean nearly 9 months of disruption.

This is exactly how it played out in 2020.

So what's the next target?

The used market

Globalization has made it easy to move watches across borders.

I believe that freedom will be the next target for regulation.

If that happens:

• ADs will get fewer watches.
  

• Scarcity will push prices up.
  

• And once certain models go out of style… they rarely come back.

That could make some high-production models even more valuable long-term — especially if production was cut short (e.g., planned 10k units for the U.S., only 2k delivered, then discontinued).

So what do you need to “watch” this year? 

Some of this is still speculative — but here’s my view:

• The rally starts in September.
  

• We’ll see the real impact in November–December.
  

• The holiday season could be very strong… or surprisingly weak.

Either way…Interesting times ahead for the watch world.

Follow me to stay ahead of the trends.