Luxury Watch Market Predictions 2026: One Tier Falls, Another Rises.

As we head into 2026, the real opportunity in the luxury watch market may not lie in the brands making headlines but in the underpriced mid-tier segment quietly entering a correction.

With inflation expected to pick up again in the first half of 2026, followed by a moderation in H2, we’re already seeing the early stages of liquidity-driven selling in brands like Panerai, Breitling and watches generally in the $8k - $12k range.

These pieces are often the first to hit the resale market as middle-income owners get squeezed adjusting to rising living costs. For investors and collectors with dry powder, this creates a tactical buying window. As supply increases and sellers seek quick exits, values may dip but the underlying quality of many of these watches remains strong.

There are few key trends driving this shift.

Macroeconomic uncertainty will define much of 2026.
Inflationary pressure in Q1–Q2, followed by a cooling off period in Q3–Q4.
No full return to stability expected until 2027.

This environment creates a barbell effect in the watch market.

On one end, wealthy buyers are consolidating into top-tier assets. They’re using watches as a hedge against currency devaluation, which I wrote about last month. On the other, mid-tier owners are selling to unlock liquidity.

The upper tier of the market remains resilient and, in some cases, continues to appreciate. This includes Rolex, AP, Patek, and RM.

Even more niche independent brands like MB&F, Vacheron Constantin, and F.P. Journe have attracted capital as buyers seek scarcity and long-term store-of-value potential.

But don’t expect bargain pricing here. These watches have become quasi-financial assets, and the wealthiest buyers aren’t forced sellers.

If you’re looking to enter or expand your position in the luxury watch space, the best risk-adjusted opportunities may lie in the middle. Here you’ll find strong brands are being repriced due to temporary financial pressure, not a decline in intrinsic value.

This is where long-term value investors in alternative assets should be paying close attention.