We’re going to see watch market pricing increase significantly this year.
Not maybe. Not hypothetically. It’s happening.

We’ve already seen Rolex openly talk about more price increases and they’re already at the top of their tier. They’re not stopping. Richard Mille is raising prices this year. We’ve watched what happened with F.P. Journe, and Patek Philippe continues to push pricing upward.

So yes, prices are going up across the board.

But here’s where most people get it wrong.

It’s Not About Metal, Labor, or Production Costs

People love to simplify pricing to materials and manufacturing. That logic doesn’t work in this market.

If a watch is already trading well above MSRP, a price increase doesn’t suddenly “kill” demand.

Take a real example:

• A Patek 5990 has an MSRP around $140k

• Patek says, “We’re raising it to $180k”

• Sounds crazy… until you remember that watch already trades around $300k

So does the secondary market move?
Yes.

But that’s not why certain watches explode in value.

The Real Reason Watches Skyrocket

Here’s the part most people miss.

Manufacturers care about volume first.
Clients care about exclusivity first.

Those two priorities are completely opposite.

When prices rise:

• Non-exclusive models move slower

• Stores receive less overall inventory

• Allocation tightens

And when that happens, the waitlisted, special pieces become even harder to get.

That’s why:

• Some watches quietly grind higher

• Others suddenly take off

It’s not hype. It’s supply compression.

Exclusivity Is the New Baseline

The watch world is now built on exclusivity and the cost of admission keeps rising.

A big driver here is currency devaluation, especially the U.S. dollar.

Unlike cars:

• Watches move globally with ease

• A Ferrari bought in the U.S. rarely gets shipped to Europe

• Watches do this every single day

As the dollar weakens:

• International buyers gain purchasing power in the U.S.

• They come here to buy

• Retailers adjust pricing to stay globally competitive

Watches have effectively become:

• Portable stores of value

• Currency hedges

• Global assets

That makes them far more sensitive to currency shifts than most people realize.

The Timing Gap Most People Miss

Price increases don’t always happen before demand shows up.

Often:

• Buyers rush in

• Inventory disappears

• Prices adjust after the fact

That gap is where the market moves fast and where people feel like prices “suddenly” jumped.

They didn’t.
They caught up.

What This Means Going Into Spring

We’re heading into a very interesting Spring.

Higher prices.
Tighter allocations.
More pressure on exclusive models.

And for anyone paying attention, the next few months will matter a lot more than headlines suggest.