It's now available for about $300k. That's up from $220k earlier this year.

A lot of people will miss this indicator because they're not regularly shopping for a watch that cost as much as a house. But for those paying attention, they recognize that when the 5990/1R starts to make moves like this, it's time to act.

Enthusiasm and capital often rotate from one alternative asset class to another. And last month's Pebble Beach car auctions tell us a significant move is going to come from the more accessible Rolex, AP and Patek models.

Well-spec'd Porsche 996, 930 and Ferrari 575s broke records at Pebble. No one expected that. This is the equivalent in the watch world of the under $100k AP Royal Oaks, several Rolex models and the Patek Complications line.

Models that have only appreciated modestly since the COVID bust.

We will see a very noticeable upward adjustment on pieces in this class in Q1 2027. As a result, the time to buy is now and into Q4 to take advantage.

Will this produce another COVID bubble in the watch market? No

I expect price normalization and gradual appreciation, not irrational speculation.

Equities, real estate, cars, gold and other assets have already repriced upward...all while watches remain significantly below their peaks.

Some of you will continue to sit on cash, citing concerns like war, bonds, private credit or AI volatility.

Meanwhile, inflation will keep eroding your purchasing power.

The window is Q3 and Q4. After that, you're paying the premium.

So which AP, Rolex or Patek are you going to start paying attention to?