One of the biggest opportunities in the watch market right now is something most people aren't paying attention to. Prices are moving up. We've been talking about this for months, and it’s finally starting to show.
The “Four Kings”, Patek Philippe, Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille, are all seeing meaningful price increaases across the board. Over the past 90 days, we’ve seen an average rise of 10 to 15 percent, and momentum is still building.
Right now, Patek is leading the charge. This is how cycles work. We saw Richard Mille run before. Then AP. It could be Rolex next. Eventually, it all comes full circle again. You can’t time it perfectly. The key is to stay in the game so you're positioned to benefit when the market moves up again.
From now through April, I believe we’ll see continued increases in value across all four brands. Some pieces are already moving faster than others, but the general trend is upward.
There’s a larger economic force at play here. As I've written all year, when the dollar devalues, asset prices tend to rise. This applies to gold, luxury watches, and nearly every form of hard asset. We are currently seeing a fully devalued dollar environment, and the effects are showing up in the price of gold and in high-end watches.
Another important factor is the lag time between gold prices and gold watch pricing. It often takes six months for changes in gold to be fully reflected in the price of luxury watches made with gold. We are just now entering the window where these adjustments will hit the market.
This combination of factors is creating a rare opportunity. There is real money to be made here. The value trends are clear for those who are watching closely.
Even if the dollar gains some strength in the coming months, gold is unlikely to drop significantly. That means pricing on many of these watches will continue to reflect not only brand strength, but also broader macro conditions that are driving up asset values overall.