Something interesting is happening in the watch world right now. Inventory is drying up.

Across major brands such as Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe, the number of listings and available pieces on the secondary market has dropped sharply. Even brands like Hublot, Panerai, and Ulysse Nardin are showing small but noticeable price increases simply because fewer people are listing their watches for sale.

This shift is creating early signs of a new pricing cycle.

Between now and April 2026, I expect continued upward pressure on pricing across top-tier brands like AP, Rolex, and Patek. Take the Patek 5990 as an example. For the last three years, it traded consistently around $220,000, but that number will be trending closer to $240,000 to $260,000 in the coming months.

Premium models are likely to hold or rise in value because fewer dealers can source them. As supply tightens, dealers will start bidding against each other to secure the right models. That is a meaningful shift in market behavior, and it signals stronger pricing ahead.

At the same time, new buyers are entering the market just as prices are starting to climb. This is not a repeat of the COVID-era surge, when prices spiked overnight and quickly collapsed. The current movement feels more controlled and sustainable.

For collectors and investors, this period could mark the beginning of a gradual, steady rebound in luxury watch values.